I reached similar conclusions based on your logic. The DOF table is roughly an estimate of where the government thinks the FAD will be in 8-12 months. Yes, that looks good but I would say in the worst case, we may not pass as the FAD in FY 2024 unless the PERM I-140 filings remain low (i.e. That's only a touch above the 34k green cards available for FY24 and would represent a scenario where the FAD could jump forward very close to in FY 24. I don't count non-NIW 140s b/w Feb-Sep 30 because again those have 2021 PDs and should get their GC before start of new FY in October 2023.Ībove table works out to a total of ~39k green cards assuming a 90% i140 approval rate, 95% 485 approval rate, and 1.8 dependent multiplier. *counting these as they might not get their GCs in time before end of this FY even though their PDs are before Feb 2022. OCT - DEC 2022 PD PERM FILERS (assumption): 1500 MAR 2022 - SEPT 2022 PD PERM FILERS (assumption): 5000 If someone's PD is say, then this is who is ahead of you:ħ0% of MAR-SEPT 2022 NIW I-140 FILERS: 9500 And that PERM filing numbers were pessimistically the same this year. I did some math assuming that say 30% of NIW filers b/w Mar 1-Salready got their GCs. Also many of those applicants might not have a decision on their I140 by October 23 if they only filed i140 recently. We're assuming that the numbers stay the same, but it could be way lower given that Big Tech stopped filings. What we really need to account for are PERMs filed b/w Feb-Oct 2022, which we have no data on. But those I140s likely have a 2021 PD so they should hopefully be taken care of in this FY before October 23. And would explain why the FAD is so far back right now.Īnother thing to consider is that the PERM based numbers we're using here (9700 for FY23) are not actually PERM filings but i140s filed in that category. Given the fast processing of i-140s that's quite likely. I agree that USCIS has already approved some NIW filers b/w Feb. 1st, so no one with that date should have been approved yet. because the final action date never passed Nov. So EB2 Feb - Oct 2022 may take up less numbers next year for ROW. However, the good news there (and for us, if the same logic is applied to ROW) is that later, the 2014 filers will take up less numbers. Lots of 2014 filers from India got approved at the expense of older 20 filers. Unfortunately, USCIS is not processing first in first out. Anecdotally, there are reports of some folks who have PDs in June or July 2022 who are already approved. I think that the only way the FAD remains at February is that USCIS may have already approved some NIW filers in addition to the PERM filers you mentioned from Feb. 2021 to Feb 1, 2022), plus any preceding backlog from 20, will get 48454 visas. If they only process up to February, that means only ~10-13k I-140 filers (demand from Oct. I think your worst case analysis is too pessimistic because ROW has 48,454 EB2 visas (197000 *. I think that could easily move forward quite a bit because USCIS loves to first hoard applications and then retrogress the FAD. The dates for filing is a whole another story though. And for that to happen we'll need to jump forward at least a teeny bit more to say 1 March 2022 or 1 April 2022 in the July or August bulletin. March 2023.Įven in the best case scenario, I don't see the FAD moving beyond in FY 2024. If we assume 50% of them did, then maybe the FAD moves to in FY 2024.Įither way, I think it's impossible that in FY 2024 the FAD will move forward all the way to end of 2023 Q2, i.e. This worst case scenario is probably wrong though because I'm counting all i140s between 1Feb-1Aug 2022 even though some of those belong to 2021 PERM filers who may have already got a green card in FY2023. So my "worst case" conclusions are much worse than yours: I don't think the FAD will move beyond in all of 2024.īecause the demand from to like ~ is already enough to use up all the 34k available visas. But we only have 34k green cards available for FY 2024 for ROW. Using a 2.1 dependent multiplier and 90% approval rate, that works out to 68k green cards. So you get a total of ~36k waiting for visas. In any case, if we assume all applications with PDs before will get cleared in the current FY given where the FAD is right now, basically USCIS needs to deal with anything after in FY2024.īetween - 30 Sept 2022 there are about 18k EB2ROW I-140s and as you noted 9200 i140s between. I could not follow the premium processing calculations you did at the bottom. I have slightly different conclusions though. Interesting analysis which in terms of numbers looks fairly consistent with mine overall even though you approached it differently.
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